The Economics of Immigration Are Not What You Think

more than one-third of recent immigrants come from Europe and Asia, while less than 57 percent have come from Mexico and other Latin American nations.


While more immigrants than native-born Americans lack high school diplomas, equivalent shares of both groups have college or post-college degrees


these undocumented people, who account for 30 percent of all recent immigrants, embody some traditional values much more than native-born American


there’s simply no evidence that the recent waves of immigration have slowed the wage progress of average, native-born American workers.


Overall, in fact, the studies show that immigration has increased the average wage of Americans modestly in the short-run, and by more over the long-term as capital investment rises to take account of the larger number of workers.


Among workers, the winners are generally higher-skilled Americans […] The losers are generally the lower-skilled workers who have to compete for jobs with recent immigrants.


[…] recent research also shows a strong entrepreneurial streak, with immigrants being 30 percent more likely than native-born Americans to start their own businesses





Will Recession Forever Scar Young Investors? at SmartMoney.com

一つ目UCLAのPaola GiulianoとIMFのAntonio Spilimbergoによる研究で、

Using data from the General Social Survey and matching it up with data on regional recessions in the United States between 1972 and 2006, the authors found that “individuals growing up during recessions tend to believe that success in life depends more on luck than on effort, support more government redistribution, but are less confident in public institutions.”


  • 成功は努力より運で決まる
  • 再分配政策により積極的である
  • しかし政府に対する信頼は低い


But what was truly striking was that this finding only held if the person was in his or her “formative years,” between 18 and 25, during the financial shock. Being exposed to a recession before the age of 17 or after the age of 25 had no effect in the data they studied.


さらに同様の傾向がBerkeleyのUlrike MalmendierとStanfordのStefan Nagelの研究でも明らかにされているそうだ。こちらは、大恐慌を経験した世代と第二次世界対戦後の好景気を経験した世代との株式市場での投資行動を調べている。

people who have lived through periods of bad stock market returns report lower willingness to take financial risk. They also are less likely to participate in the stock market, and, if they do invest in the stock market, invest a lower fraction of their liquid assets in stocks. (Similarly, people who have experienced high inflation are less likely to hold bonds.)


The lesson: We’re slaves to what’s known as “availability bias.” We form our predictions about the world based on the data most readily available to us — on what’s happened to us personally, or what’s happened to our friends, or what we’ve read in the papers or seen on TV.

このような現象は可用性バイアス(availability bias)と呼ばれる。これは自分や親しい人間が経験した出来事が生じる確率を過大評価してしまう傾向である。




P.S. この記事でも研究結果が紹介されているが実際の論文は示されていない。それらしい文献へのリンクをしておいた。これはジャーナリズムは普通のことなんだろうか。ちなみにavailability biasという言葉も言及されている(と思われる)論文には出てこない。記事を書いたひとの意見ということだろう。



A Less-is-More Growth Strategy for Africa via Project Syndicate

The African Union is now aiming at pooling all the continent’s currencies into a single currency by 2028. In the meantime, several regional monetary unions are on the drawing board, in addition to the two monetary unions that already exist, one de jure and the other de facto .


But the naira’s introduction quickly put an end to parity with the British pound. Government expenditure exceeded federal revenue, despite rapidly rising foreign-exchange earnings from oil exports after 1970. The federal government’s budget deficits were financed through foreign and domestic borrowing, and by printing money, which led to inflation and depreciation of the new currency. Today, it costs 220 naira to buy one British pound, which implies 15% annual average depreciation since 1973.



If African countries were to adopt only one policy to boost economic growth and improve macroeconomic stability, they should reduce the number of currencies in circulation across the continent as quickly as possible.